The hottest machinery manufacturing excavator in D

Machinery manufacturing: Excavators in December +14% year-on-year +1% month on month

event: in December 2018, the sales volume of excavators was 16027, year-on-year +14%, month on month +1%, and the annual cumulative sales volume was 203420, with a cumulative year-on-year +45%. Among them, () sales volume was 3899 units, with a year-on-year increase of +22%, a month on month increase of 1%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of +51%; XCMG sold 1884 units, up +55% year-on-year and +9% month on month, with a total of +69% year-on-year; () the sales volume was 1113 sets, with a year-on-year increase of +39%, a month on month increase of -20%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of +74%

key investment points: the sales volume of excavators in December was +14% year-on-year, and the annual sales volume has reached a record high: the sales volume of excavators in December was 16027, with a year-on-year increase of +14%, and a month on month increase of +1%. The annual sales volume of excavators regularly maintained and inspected 203420 experimental machines, far exceeding the annual sales volume of 178352 in 2011 (the highest level in History), and the sales volume of excavators in Q4 in a single quarter exceeded 60000 (year-on-year +24%), which was also the highest level in history. According to grassroots research, the sales volume of excavators may decline by 10% - 20% in 2019, but small excavators will continue to grow due to the shortage of rural labor

Sany Heavy industry ranks first, and the domestic brand market share of this kind of products. The host is electronic, but the clip is hydraulic. From the perspective of key enterprises, Sany Heavy Industry sold 3899 units in December, accounting for 24% of the market in a single month. The growth rate is leading the industry, and the leading position is stable; After the launch of H Series in July, the market share of excavators above 40 tons increased significantly, and the market share of excavators above 40 tons reached 26% in November. The annual cumulative sales volume was 46935 units, accounting for 23% of the total market. XCMG, caterpillar and Doosan followed closely, with a single month market share of 11.76%, 11.16% and 8.55% respectively. Overall, since the second half of this year, the market share of caterpillar has shown a downward trend, while the market share of Doosan has shown an obvious upward trend. The market share of domestic brands continued to rise, reaching 62% this month. The market shares of Japanese and European and American brands were 13% and 15% respectively, with a slight decline, while the market share of Korean brands was 10%, with a slight increase. Doosan's monthly sales volume was +32% year-on-year, and its monthly market share exceeded that of Liugong

the year-on-year growth rate of export sales slowed slightly, and the growth rate of small excavators was ahead of that of medium and large excavators: 1749 excavators were exported in December, with a year-on-year growth rate of +38%, which remained stable at 11%, and the export sales continued to exceed expectations. Since 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator exports has remained above 70%, and exports are becoming a new growth point. The overseas layout of domestic manufacturers for many years, superimposed on the driving effect of engineering demand along the "" on excavator exports, is expected to maintain a high growth in export sales in the future. Domestically, the eastern, central and western regions sold 5408, 4441 and 4463 units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of +44%, +1%, -3%, and the market share of 34%, 28% and 28% respectively. The market share of the eastern and central regions increased slightly, while the market share of the western region decreased. In terms of tonnage sales, the sales volume of small excavation, medium excavation and large excavation in December was 8870, 4980 and 2177 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26.08%, 4.73% and -1.72%, accounting for 55%, 31% and 14% respectively. Due to the rapid growth and high base of the sales volume of medium and large mining enterprises in 2017, the growth rate of the sales volume of medium and large mining enterprises has slowed down, and the small mining industry has a strong momentum, accounting for a continuous expansion

the growth rate of downstream investment slowed down slightly, and it is expected that infrastructure development will be beneficial to construction machinery: in November, the completion of real estate investment increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the monthly cumulative increase was 9.7% year-on-year; The new construction area of houses increased by 21. 5% year-on-year in a single month It has a spread of 7%, with a cumulative monthly increase of 16.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate of real estate investment has rebounded. Monthly infrastructure investment rose 3.7% year-on-year. Recently, the national policy has been relaxed, the approval of infrastructure projects represented by transportation infrastructure has been significantly accelerated, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound. In addition, the stricter environmental protection verification will speed up the release of renewal demand. The switch from national three to national four standards is expected to promote the early release of renewal demand and prolong the boom cycle of the construction machinery industry. In addition, the cumulative new construction area of houses in the month was +16.8% year-on-year, which differentiated from the growth rate of commercial housing sales area (+1.4%), so it can be inferred that the developers took the initiative to adopt the high turnover mode of fast construction, fast opening and fast payment collection in order to alleviate the operating pressure. We believe that this is also one of the reasons for the continued prosperity of downstream demand

investment suggestions: continue to be the first to promote

[Sany]: 1. The concentration of the whole series of product lines and leading enterprises continues to improve; 2. Exports continue to exceed expectations, 3 advantages of high efficiency, and valuation premium of industry leaders. Other recommendations

[Hengli hydraulic]: the leader of China's hydraulic industry, expand international business and bind the growth of the leader is expected. It is suggested to pay attention to (), Liu Gong,, ()

risk tip: the implementation of the the Belt and Road is lower than expected; Investment in fixed assets and real estate was lower than expected